People here in LA think a lot about real estate (when they’re not thinking about cars).* Last September, when we first arrived in town, we had a vague idea that we might try to buy something. Ha! Average homes in our modest mid-city neighborhood were then going for a cool mil; now those same places are listed at 1.4. But it has to stop sometime. The most likely scenario is a rise in interest rates, after which buyers with low-interest ARMS, or interest-only loans (with their hair-raising balloon payments) will be in the shits. Foreclosures for everyone! I admit to a schadenfreude-ish desire to see what happens, as perhaps we would then be able to step in and buy someone else’s heartbreak. It’s blatant opportunism, and I’m not proud. But we can at least console ourselves that our greed can’t touch what’s going on in New Orleans post-Katrina.** Over the last several days, the media has been reporting on a disturbing phenomenon, where speculators are offering to relieve strapped homeowners of their properties for pennies on the dollar. (It’s worth reading this mind-boggling exchange on the New Orleans CraigsList*** in its entirety.) The models for lip-smacking profits were established in Florida in 1992, after oceanfront property was destroyed by Andrew, then again in lower Manhattan following 9/11. Never forget. Since Katrina, Loopnet has measured a 45 percent rise in out-of-state investor inquiries in Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama.
But what goes around, comes around—the spouse and I should be careful with our hopes. The Big One could hit California tomorrow (in which case, boy am I glad we rent; we might lose grandma’s dishes, but wouldn’t be destitute).
Up in Oregon, it’s a different matter. Our 100-year-old house in
Astoria sits at the edge of a precipice in an area prone to disastrous,
and uninsurable, landslides.
When we bought the place, the floor slanted a full 13 inches front to back. We had the foundation leveled, which was good for the inner ear, but meaningless to Mother Nature. If there’s enough rain (what—in the Pacific Northwest?) the place might go entirely. In which case, we’ll have nothing left with which to buy our California dream.
* Okay, I’m talking about the middle class. Plenty of folks here think about food and shelter and finding a job.
** And now here comes Rita: Heaven help them down there.
*** There is enough material in any one day’s CraigsList postings to fuel 1000 novels.
Hey Karen, we are middle class, but I am too busy to fix my Tower of Pisa carport column - I look concernedly at it every day instead, because there are another three to hold the carport up and I use the carport for arrivals and departures. You have made me feel better already. Why don't you buy something else in Oregon before it slides away with you? Take care there.
Posted by: genevieve | September 26, 2005 at 06:06 AM